Hu, M; Bergsdal, H; Van Der Voet, E; Huppes, G and Muller, D B (2010) Dynamics of urban and rural housing stocks in China. Building Research & Information, 38(3), pp. 301-317. ISSN 0961-3218
Abstract
The massive migration flows from rural to urban areas in China, combined with an expected decline in the total population over the next decades, leads to two important challenges for China's housing: the growth of its urban housing stock and the shrinkage of rural housing. The rural and urban housing systems in China were analyzed using a dynamic material flow analysis model for the period 1900-2100 for several scenarios assuming different development paths for population, urbanization, housing demand per capita, and building lifetime. The simulation results indicate that new housing construction is likely to decline for several decades due to the fast growth over the past 30 years and the expected increased longevity of dwellings. Such an oscillation of new construction activity would have significant implications for the construction industry, employment, raw material demand, and greenhouse gas emissions to produce the construction materials. Policy and practical options for mitigating the negative impacts are considered.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | building stocks; China; construction demand; dynamic material flow analysis; housing stock; longevity; trends; urbanization |
| Index terms: | urbanization, migration, housing stock, construction activity, building stock, employment, population, dynamics, construction material, greenhouse gas emission, construction demand, urban area, material flow analysis, residential construction, rural housing, construction industry, China, housing, option |
| Subjects: | management, urban form and morphology, construction integration, Geography, material science and engineering, market analysis, demography, asset management, decision analysis, industry analysis, systems engineering, environmental health, construction type, urban planning, building materials, construction operations |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Governance, Construction Technology, Risk Management, Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Business Strategy, Site Management, Human Resources, Urban Studies |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here