Sandberg, N H and Bratteb, H (2012) Analysis of energy and carbon flows in the future Norwegian dwelling stock. Building Research & Information, 40(2), pp. 123-139. ISSN 0961-3218
Abstract
A dynamic analysis of future energy and carbon flows (2000-2050) is performed on the aggregated residential building stock in Norway. The basis for the analysis is a dynamic material flow analysis of floor areas and the main building materials. By adding energy intensity assumptions for space heating, water heating, domestic electrical appliances and embodied energy in construction materials, the future corresponding delivered energy demand is calculated. This forms the basis for life cycle estimation of the future direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The predicted demand for delivered energy in 2025 will increase by 24.0% and 12.5% above those for 2000 and 2010, respectively, and then remain stable towards 2050. Energy savings per unit of floor area are counterbalanced by growth in the building stock. The very high influence of energy technology assumptions within the electricity generation market is demonstrated, along with the large differences between using attributional and consequential life cycle assessment principles in the calculation of future emissions. Future electricity demand met by marginal power generation technologies in the European market will yield substantially higher GHG emissions. The simulations demonstrate the policy, strategy, and practical challenges in achieving significant long-term energy and GHG emission reductions from the residential building stock in a country with a rapidly growing population.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | building sector; building stock; buildings; co <sub>2</sub> reduction; energy consumption; greenhouse gas emissions; material flow analysis; mitigation; Norway |
| Index terms: | residential building, energy demand, building stock, strategy, life cycle assessment, Norway, life cycle estimation, energy-saving, population, construction material, greenhouse gas emission, energy consumption, mitigation, building material, material flow analysis, space heating, electricity generation, greenhouse gas, energy technology, electricity demand, power generation, embodied energy |
| Subjects: | management, material science and engineering, financial risk, Geography, asset management, demography, environmental health, mechanical systems, construction type, climate science, value management, environmental impact, building materials, innovation and technology management, energy systems |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Geographical Context, Project Management, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Sustainability, Construction Technology, Urban Studies, Design Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
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