Preventing the overheating of English suburban homes in a warming climate

As the impacts of climate change become more prominent within the next 50 years and beyond, the risk of overheating in homes is a concern. This is specifically relevant in the UK-s suburbs where 84% of the population reside. To assess this future impact and the effectiveness of adaptive retrofitting, probabilistic climate change data for the 2030s and 2050s are used to assess the overheating risk in six suburban house archetypes in three cities in the UK: Bristol, Oxford and Stockport. The risks of overheating in typical constructions are assessed and the possibility of preventing overheating through the use of adaptation packages is evaluated through dynamic thermal simulation. Homes in Oxford show the greatest risk of overheating. The most effective (passive) package for tackling future overheating tends to combine fabric improvements and internal heat gain reduction. To assist planners and policy-makers in assessing and preventing overheating risk at a stock level, this adaptation package is further evaluated in selected neighbourhoods across the three case study cities, using the geographical information system (GIS)-based DECoRuM-Adapt (Domestic Energy, Carbon Counting and Carbon Reduction Model) model. The implications for public policy are that the existing housing stock must be future-proofed for a warming climate, particularly retrofit programmes (e.g. the Green Deal) and any upgrading of building regulations.