Martinez-Soto, A and Jentsch, M F (2020) A transferable energy model for determining the future energy demand and its uncertainty in a country's residential sector. Building Research & Information, 48(6), pp. 587-612. ISSN 0961-3218
Abstract
Residential energy models are a common tool for determining the overall energy consumption attributed to the housing sector of a country as well as for projecting the future energy demand in relation to energy conservation policies. However, current residential energy models often require large amounts of input data, have a limited transferability to different countries and often fail to correctly depict trends in energy consumption. Furthermore, no current model gives an indication of the underlying uncertainties in its results. This paper presents a transferable residential energy model that combines statistical and building physics approaches and, with input data typically available in most countries, is able to model the annual and monthly residential energy demand of a given nation or region. In addition to providing trends in the residential sector’s final energy demand according to area of use, the model also estimates uncertainties in the results in three probability bands at 30%, 60% and 90% confidence intervals. Results for a 'forecast period' 2001–2010 in three case study countries: Germany, Chile and the UK show a high overall agreement of the new modelling approach with the statistical data and the residential sector’s energy consumption trends of these three countries.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | energy models; model transferability; probability bands; residential energy consumption; uncertainty analysis |
| Index terms: | energy conservation, modelling, estimate, Chile, confidence interval, energy consumption, energy model, uncertainty analysis, energy demand, case study, housing, consumption, Germany, residential energy |
| Subjects: | data collection methods, construction type, consumer economics, energy systems, financial and cost management, analytical methods, Geography, environmental hazards, statistical analysis |
| Topics: | Stakeholder Management, Construction Technology, Sustainability, Cost Management, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here