Diffusion prediction of prefabricated construction technology under multi-factor coupling

Prefabricated construction (PC) is regarded as an effective way to reduce carbon emissions in the construction sector and attracts increasing attention from academia and industry. However, the development trend of PC technology diffusion remains unclear, which is not conducive to improving the PC’s promotion. To address this issue, this study predicts the diffusion trend of PC technology considering multi-factor interaction and reveals its underlying mechanism. The significance of influencing factors of PC technology diffusion is explored through the empirical research method based on partial least squares-structural equation modelling. The diffusion trend of PC technology is then predicted using the system dynamics considering the interaction of those key factors. The results indicate that both perceived superiority and knowledge sharing have positive influences on PC technology diffusion, and they mediate the path from organizational climate to PC technology diffusion. Network embeddedness influences PC technology diffusion through knowledge sharing. Under the above-factors interaction, PC technology diffuses continuously until stability in the next 48 months, with a diffusion speed trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The diffusion prediction of PC technology under multi-factor coupling in this study fills up the gap in existing research. The conclusions are suggestive for promoting PC technology effectively.