Kurvinen, A; Huovari, J; Lahtinen, M; Sen, T and Saari, A (2024) A dynamic model for estimating the long-term need for repairs and renovations in residential buildings. Building Research & Information, 52(5), pp. 533-550. ISSN 0961-3218
Abstract
Reaching sustainability targets requires a holistic understanding of the different dimensions of residential building stock development. This paper aims to provide a solid and transparent approach for modelling residential building stock development with a focus on the long-term need for repairs and renovations. The modelling approach is based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis (MFA) and the model is constructed using comprehensive Finnish statistics. Still, it is widely applicable to different geographical locations and modifiable for various purposes. The main contributions to the previous literature are the incorporation of empirical building mortality analysis and rehabilitation degree model in the MFA modelling framework. The model is demonstrated by modelling the development of Finnish residential building stock from 2020 to 2050. The annual average need for renovation from 2020 to 2050 is 4.1 million residential square metres (1.8% percent of the entire housing stock), equalling to annual investments of some 7.8 billion euros. However, the results revealed notable geographical differences between municipality categories. The results also suggest that the proportion of renovations in the total construction market is increasing while the volume of new housing construction is decreasing. The modelled results are in line with the Finnish Long-Term Renovation Strategy 2020–2050.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction; demolition; dynamic material flow analysis; Finland; renovation; residential building stock |
| Index terms: | renovation, mortality, residential construction, modelling, statistics, dimension, construction market, residential building, Finland, material flow analysis, repair, estimating, municipality, housing stock, strategy |
| Subjects: | analytical methods, financial and cost management, health monitoring assessment and metrics, mathematical modelling, construction type, market analysis, administrative law, industry analysis, maintenance engineering, construction integration, renovation and retrofit, management, material science and engineering, Geography |
| Topics: | Legal Issues, Construction Technology, Sustainability, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Health and Safety, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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