A surface water management model for the Integrated Southern Ghor Project, Jordan

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the long-term ability of the Integrated Southern Ghor Project (ISGP) to meet the required water demands, assess the resulting energy requirements, pumping costs, water transfers, benefits of the current system with respect to predevelopment conditions and effect of projected water demands increase on the resulting water deficits. Design/methodology/approach – A surface water resources management model is developed using dynamic programming. The model inputs are the hydrological inflows from the different wadis in the project area, reservoirs characteristics and evaporation rates, system water demands. The model outputs are water deficits at the different demand areas, reservoirs storage and release sequences, water transfers and energy requirements and the associated costs. The average annual values of different performance criteria with the annual frequency curves are used to evaluate the implications of different water scenarios on the ISGP. Findings – The results show the efficiency of the ISGP model in reducing the water deficits in the demand areas as compared to predevelopment conditions. Increased demand scenario showed the importance of finding new water projects to supplement the Southern Ghor Area in the future in order to meet the increasing water demands. The proposed water transfer will reduce the resulting deficits at the agricultural areas without the expenses of increasing the water deficits at other demand areas. The application of this model is expected to enhance decision making regarding water policies in Jordan. Originality/value – This paper provides critical quantitative information to decision makers in Jordan about the potential of the different storage facilities and proposed transfers in meeting the required water demands in the Southern Ghor Project and assesses the required energy for that. This can help decision makers to have a holistic view about the expected water deficits in the area and therefore assist them in determining the areas impacted most and what alternative solution to use. The paper also shows the importance of using optimal control/management models to support water resources decision making in Jordan.