Marzouk, M and Mohamed, E (2018) Modeling bid/no bid decisions using fuzzy fault tree. Construction Innovation, 18(1), pp. 90-108. ISSN 1471-4175
Abstract
Purpose Decisions by construction contractors to bid (or not to bid) require the thorough assessment and evaluation of factors relevant to the decision, as well as the quantification of their combined impact, to produce successful bid/no-bid decisions. The purpose of this study is to present a fuzzy fault tree model to assist construction contractors to more efficiently bid for future projects. Design/methodology/Approach The proposed model consist of two stages: first, identification of the factors that affect bidding decision using a questionnaire survey after an extensive literature review, and second, usage of the identified factors to build a fuzzy fault tree model to simulate the bidding decision. Findings A list of 15 factors that affect bid/no-bid decisions was identified. Analysis of factors revealed that the highest-ranking factors were related to financial aspects of the project. A case study is presented to demonstrate the capabilities of the model, and a fuzzy important analysis is performed on the basic events to demonstrate the differences between three contractors' bid/no-bid decisions. The results reveal that there is variation between the decisions of each contractor based on their willingness to participate. Besides, the influence of evaluation factors on the final decision for each contractor is different. Originality/value The study contributes to the body of knowledge on tendering and bidding practices. The proposed model incorporated the fuzzy set theory, which suits human subjectivity. The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of previous models as it can, using the linear pool opinion principle, combine and weigh the evaluations of multiple experts. In addition, the model is convenient for situations where historical data are not available.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Egypt,decision making,bidding,procurement management,construction contractors,bid/no bid decision,fuzzy fault tree,statistical tests,tendering systems |
| Index terms: | survey, subjectivity, literature review, questionnaire, variation, methodology, decision-making, bidding, bid/no-bid, statistical test, body of knowledge, construction contractor, tendering system, case study, quantification, fuzzy set theory, procurement management, fuzzy fault tree, modelling, Egypt |
| Subjects: | statistical analysis, decision-making and optimization, procurement strategy, measurement and scaling, decision analysis, contractual condition, Geography, research methods, tendering, analytical methods, bidding, data analysis and analytics, knowledge management, practitioner, human factors and perception, data collection methods, risk assessment |
| Topics: | Contract Administration, Risk Management, Roles and Professions, Procurement, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Engineering Principles, Information Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
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