Shoar, S; Nasirzadeh, F and Zarandi, H R (2019) Quantitative assessment of risks on construction projects using fault tree analysis with hybrid uncertainties. Construction Innovation, 19(1), pp. 48-70. ISSN 1471-4175
Abstract
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present a fault tree (FT)-based approach for quantitative risk analysis in the construction industry that can take into account both objective and subjective uncertainties. Design/methodology/approach: In this research, the identified basic events (BEs) are first categorized based on the availability of historical data into probabilistic and possibilistic. The probabilistic and possibilistic events are represented by probability distributions and fuzzy numbers, respectively. Hybrid uncertainty analysis is then performed through a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy set theory. The probability of occurrence of the top event is finally calculated using the proposed FT-based hybrid uncertainty analysis method. Findings: The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by implementing in a real steel structure project. A quantitative risk assessment is performed for weld cracks, taking into account of both types of uncertainties. An importance analysis is finally performed to evaluate the contribution of each BE to the probability of occurrence of weld cracks and adopt appropriate response strategies. Research limitations/implications: In this research, the impact of objective (aleatory) dependence between the occurrences of different BEs and subjective (epistemic) dependence between estimates of the epistemically uncertain probabilities of some BEs are not considered. Moreover, there exist limitations to the application of fuzzy set rules, which were used for aggregating experts’ opinions and ranking purposes of the BEs in the FT model. These limitations can be investigated through further research. Originality/value: It is believed that the proposed hybrid uncertainty analysis method presents a robust and powerful tool for quantitative risk analysis, as both types of uncertainties are taken into account appropriately.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | computational and numerical techniques; construction management; innovation; management; project management; risk assessment/risk management |
| Index terms: | methodology, construction project, fault-tree analysis, strategy, construction industry, estimate, steel structure, project management, risk assessment, risk management, quantitative risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, probability distribution, fuzzy set theory, fuzzy set, efficiency, uncertainty analysis |
| Subjects: | environmental hazards, statistical analysis, decision-making and optimization, industry analysis, project management theory and practice, financial risk, production management, specialized materials and systems, research methods, performance management, management, financial and cost management, modelling and simulation, risk management, risk assessment |
| Topics: | Quality Management, Sustainability, Risk Management, Construction Materials, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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