Philip, B and AlJassmi, H (2024) Time-series forecasting of road distress parameters using dynamic Bayesian belief networks. Construction Innovation, 24(1), pp. 317-340. ISSN 1471-4175
Abstract
Purpose: To proactively draw efficient maintenance plans, road agencies should be able to forecast main road distress parameters, such as cracking, rutting, deflection and International Roughness Index (IRI). Nonetheless, the behavior of those parameters throughout pavement life cycles is associated with high uncertainty, resulting from various interrelated factors that fluctuate over time. This study aims to propose the use of dynamic Bayesian belief networks for the development of time-series prediction models to probabilistically forecast road distress parameters. Design/methodology/approach: While Bayesian belief network (BBN) has the merit of capturing uncertainty associated with variables in a domain, dynamic BBNs, in particular, are deemed ideal for forecasting road distress over time due to its Markovian and invariant transition probability properties. Four dynamic BBN models are developed to represent rutting, deflection, cracking and IRI, using pavement data collected from 32 major road sections in the United Arab Emirates between 2013 and 2019. Those models are based on several factors affecting pavement deterioration, which are classified into three categories traffic factors, environmental factors and road-specific factors. Findings: The four developed performance prediction models achieved an overall precision and reliability rate of over 80%. Originality/value: The proposed approach provides flexibility to illustrate road conditions under various scenarios, which is beneficial for pavement maintainers in obtaining a realistic representation of expected future road conditions, where maintenance efforts could be prioritized and optimized.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | dynamic Bayesian belief networks; performance prediction modeling; road distress parameters; time-series data |
| Index terms: | performance prediction, life cycle, forecasting, distress, modelling, bayesian belief network, prediction model, deterioration, United Arab Emirates, environmental factor, agency, methodology |
| Subjects: | value management, environmental science, analytical methods, prediction and forecasting, material degradation and durability, Geography, structural engineering, research methods, performance management, probabilistic model, sociology |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Project Management, Geographical Context, Engineering Principles, Construction Materials, Sustainability, Digital Applications, Quality Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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