Beeston, D (1986) Combining risks in estimating. Construction Management and Economics, 4(1), pp. 75-79. ISSN 01446193
Abstract
A method is described which attempts to provide a practical way of building up an estimate which will be exceeded with a calculated probability. The stakes are high in a large project but a statistically rigorous method would be impossibly complex for projects with a large number of risks to consider. The method described is a compromise between precision and practicability. It follows the spirit of a full probability treatment but is appropriate to the level of reliability in the subjective evaluations of risk which form a large part of the input to any method of risk analysis.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | dependence; estimating; independence; Monte Carlo method; risk; statistical method |
| Index terms: | estimate, estimating, risk analysis, statistical method |
| Subjects: | statistical analysis, financial and cost management, environmental hazards |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Research Practice, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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