Tucker, S N (1986) Formulating construction cash flow curves using a reliability theory analogy. Construction Management and Economics, 4(3), pp. 179-188. ISSN 01446193
Abstract
Prediction of cash flows during construction of large buildings is usually based on cumulative cashflow in the form of an S-curve. There have been several attempts to establish formulae for the estimation of such S-curves on an empirical basis. This paper draws an anlogy between the probability of failure in reliability theory and the probability of payment during construction to develop a general approach to possible mathematical forms of the cashflow during construction. An example of a new generalized alternative form of the S-curve known in Australia as the Bromilow S-curve is shown to be an excellent approximation to the empirical form.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction costs; cost planning; mathematical models; reliability; statistical distribution |
| Index terms: | cash flow, mathematical model, cost planning, construction cost, Australia, estimation, s-curve |
| Subjects: | mathematical modelling, financial and cost management, Geography, financial management, economics |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Geographical Context, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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