Runeson, K G (1988) Methodology and method for price-level forecasting in the building industry. Construction Management and Economics, 6(1), pp. 49-55. ISSN 01446193
Abstract
This paper discusses the appropriate methodology for establishing a model for forecasting building price movements and interpreting building value statistics. The proposed methodology is illustrated with an ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression model quantifying the effects on the price level of variations in the degree of competitiveness in the industry. The dependent variable is a Market Conditions Index and the predictor variables are Building Approvals, Fixed Capital Formation in Building and the Rate of Unemployment. This model overcomes one of the most serious shortcomings of previous models in that it incorporates into the model adjustments to the capacity of the industry in response to variations in demand with the consequential improvement in accuracy.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | building; forecasting; index; price; time series |
| Index terms: | variation, methodology, dependent variable, unemployment, movement, approval, time series, accuracy, market condition, competitiveness, building industry, statistics, forecasting, multiple regression model |
| Subjects: | industry analysis, statistical analysis, market analysis, contractual condition, professional development, research methods, data science, economic analysis, prediction and forecasting, economic and policy analysis, health behaviours and lifestyles, contractual role, mathematical modelling |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Information Management, Business Strategy, Contract Administration |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here