Birnie, J and Yates, A (1991) Cost prediction using decision/risk analysis methodologies. Construction Management and Economics, 9(2), pp. 171-186. ISSN 01446193
Abstract
The ability to make good cost predictions is a very important aspect of the construction process. The methods used have historically relied on subjective judgements based on data which have proved satisfactory. The formal methodologies of decision/risk analysis have been little used in construction. This paper looks at how the use of decision trees, utility theory and the Monte Carlo simulation technique might improve human judgement in cost prediction. The successful application of decision/risk analysis to a housing refurbishment contract is described in a case study.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | decision analysis; decision trees; Monte Carlo simulation; probability; risk analysis; utility theory |
| Index terms: | utility theory, risk analysis, construction process, methodology, housing refurbishment, decision analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, cost prediction, case study, decision tree |
| Subjects: | data collection methods, financial and cost management, modelling and simulation, research methods, renovation and retrofit, environmental hazards, economic theory, decision analysis, building construction |
| Topics: | Design Practice, Site Management, Cost Management, Research Practice, Risk Management, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PTEA |
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