Fitzgerald, E and Akintoye, A (1995) The accuracy and optimal linear correction of UK construction tender price index forecasts. Construction Management and Economics, 13(6), pp. 493-500. ISSN 01446193
Abstract
This paper uses a number of quantitative methods to assess the accuracy of the UK construction tender price index forecast (TPI) produced by experts for the Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) from 1980 to 1992. The test of comparative predictive accuracy shows that the BCIS forecast is less accurate than forecasts based upon a simple (naive) model which is widely regarded as the benchmark of satisfactory predictive performance. The study shows that the BCIS forecast contains systematic error which can be reduced with the use of optimal linear correction. The paper, apart from assessing the forecasting error of construction price movement, is normative in nature, producing aids for assessing forecast accuracy of the construction industry time series data.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction industry; construction price; forecasting accuracy; optimal linear correction; tender price index forecast |
| Index terms: | movement, time series, accuracy, quantitative method, tender price index, forecasting, cost information, construction industry |
| Subjects: | industry analysis, professional development, accounting and finance, quantity surveying, prediction and forecasting, data analysis and analytics, data science, health behaviours and lifestyles |
| Topics: | Information Management, Research Practice, Cost Management, Procurement |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 CTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here