Notman, D; Norman, G; Flanagan, R and Agapiou, A (1998) A time-series analysis of UK annual and quarterly construction output data (1955-95). Construction Management and Economics, 16(4), pp. 409-416. ISSN 01446193
Abstract
United Kingdom construction output makes a vitally important contribution to the gross domestic product of the UK economy. Nevertheless, despite the obvious importance of UK construction, very little is known about the output behaviour of the industry. This paper endeavours to redress the imbalance by analysing the post-war time-series behaviour of annual and quarterly UK construction output. The primary technique of analysis is to estimate an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model of UK construction output. Such a model proxies the stochastic or random process that underlies UK construction output data. Also, a review is given of the methodology of estimation and diagnostic checking of ARIMA models in the context of UK construction output, together with ex-post and ex-ante forecasts of UK construction output using the estimated ARIMA models.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | arima models; ex-post and ex-ante forecasts; random processes; time-series data |
| Index terms: | estimation, gross domestic product, time-series analysis, estimate, war, United Kingdom, construction output, methodology |
| Subjects: | operations management, economic analysis, financial and cost management, research evaluation and metrics, research methods, Geography, conflict and crisis studies |
| Topics: | Legal Issues, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Project Management, Geographical Context, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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