Tah, J H M and Carr, V (2000) A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic. Construction Management and Economics, 18(4), pp. 491-500. ISSN 01446193
Abstract
The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | common language; construction projects; fuzzy logic; project performance; qualitative risk assessment |
| Index terms: | safety performance, exposure, methodology, construction project, risk breakdown structure, proposal, construction industry, estimate, risk factor, project performance, risk management, risk assessment, operational research, project manager, fuzzy logic, quantification |
| Subjects: | financial risk, project management theory and practice, production management, research methods, public and environmental health, management, environmental hazards, industry analysis, measurement and scaling, occupational health and safety management, profession, risk assessment, financial and cost management, project planning, data science |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Sustainability, Risk Management, Roles and Professions, Research Practice, Project Management, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Health and Safety |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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