Wibowo, A (2005) Estimating general threshold traffic levels of typical build, operate, and transfer toll road projects in Indonesia. Construction Management and Economics, 23(6), pp. 621-630. ISSN 01446193
Abstract
Applying the adjusted present value method enables the estimation of the general minimum traffic levels for the first year of operation required to make typical Indonesia's build, operate and transfer (BOT) toll road projects financially feasible. To determine the level, both average business risk as reflected by the opportunity cost of capital in the country's toll road industry, and project-specific risk as reflected by traffic risk in terms of ramp-up scale, ramp-up duration and catch-up extent are taken into consideration. Pessimistic and optimistic estimates reveal, respectively, that 18 000 vehicles per day (vhd) and 18 100 vhd are the minimum traffic levels under a low traffic risk scenario. This level increases particularly for optimistic estimate if traffic risk rises. To relax these high traffic requirements, the government should attempt to minimize traffic risk and average business risk or to provide financial supports. Sensitivity analysis results demonstrate that the threshold traffic levels are very sensitive to base tolls and construction cost.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | adjusted present value; build-operate-transfer; Indonesia; toll road |
| Index terms: | duration, Indonesia, estimating, estimate, sensitivity analysis, estimation, build-operate-transfer, toll, construction cost, road project |
| Subjects: | Geography, environmental hazards, contractual arrangements, project controls, transportation engineering, financial and cost management, infrastructure engineering |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Geographical Context, Procurement, Sustainability, Time Control, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here