Li, X; Ogier, J and Cullen, J (2006) An economic modelling approach for public sector construction workload planning. Construction Management and Economics, 24(11), pp. 1137-1147. ISSN 1466433X
Abstract
The effectiveness of public sector construction workload planning can be enhanced through employing an economic modelling approach to predict the impact of different workloads on tender price changes. The main problem associated with existing methods used for predicting tender price index (TPI) for construction projects is a lack of robustness when the market becomes unstable. This is due to limited consideration of market conditions in these methods. An economic modelling approach has been developed and applied for public sector construction workload planning in the States of Guernsey where forward planning was required. The developed model overcomes the problem of existing methods-lack of robustness-by correlating TPI of construction projects to demand over capacity ratio of the industry, which represents the industry's economic condition. The model generates the price changes under different planning options associated with different workloads over a five-year planning period. The information is valuable to the public sector in estimating actually required investment. This ensures the feasibility of the plan and the possibility of contribution to the stability of the construction market. The model development and application process developed in this research can be used to assist a planning process for an industry where a demand, capacity and price relationship is applied.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | capacity; construction work load planning; demand; modelling; tender price index |
| Index terms: | planning process, construction work, tender price, effectiveness, model development, workload, tender price index, option, construction project, market condition, modelling, Guernsey, estimating, stability, construction market, economic condition, public sector |
| Subjects: | economic analysis, operations management, production management, tendering, analytical methods, structural engineering, financial and cost management, performance management, management, project controls, Geography, quantity surveying, economic and policy analysis, administrative law, decision analysis, market analysis |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Geographical Context, Human Resources, Business Strategy, Procurement, Quality Management, Legal Issues, Time Control, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Risk Management, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here