Thomas, A V; Kalidindi, S N and Ganesh, L S (2006) Modelling and assessment of critical risks in BOT road projects. Construction Management and Economics, 24(4), pp. 407-424. ISSN 01446193
Abstract
Over the years, many private sector participation (PSP) models have been evolved for infrastructure procurement and the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model is one of the most common approaches used for the same. Private infrastructure projects under BOT arrangement have a complex risk profile and to a considerable extent, the success of any BOT project is influenced by the degree to which various project risks are managed. The major steps involved in risk management of a project are risk identification, risk assessment and the processes of prioritization and response to the risks. The conventional risk assessment approaches may not be effective in privatized infrastructure projects because of the fact that, they have very long project lifecycle with many country and sector specific risk factors. The assessment of complex risks is often a difficult task when past data on similar risks are not available. In this research, a risk probability and impact assessment framework based on fuzzy-fault tree and the Delphi method is proposed. The framework includes extensive scenario modelling of critical risks in projects and systematic processing of professional judgement (subjective knowledge) of experts and is developed and demonstrated in the context of critical risks in Indian BOT road projects. Detailed scenario modelling of most critical risks such as traffic revenue risk, delay in land acquisition, demand risk and delay in financial closure are also presented. The proposed risk assessment framework is generic and can be applied with appropriate modifications to suit any complex developmental project where past data is inadequate for risk assessment.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | bot projects; fuzzy sets; possibility distribution; risk assessment; risk modelling |
| Index terms: | demand risk, infrastructure project, build-operate-transfer, land acquisition, risk assessment, impact assessment, revenue, risk factor, road project, project lifecycle, private sector participation, risk management, modelling, risk identification, fuzzy set, Delphi method |
| Subjects: | risk assessment, financial risk, economic analysis, real estate economics, data collection methods, analytical methods, infrastructure engineering, decision-making and optimization, project completion, infrastructure and transport systems, environmental hazards, contractual arrangements, stakeholder participation, value management |
| Topics: | Stakeholder Management, Cost Management, Sustainability, Procurement, Business Strategy, Research Practice, Risk Management, Urban Studies, Project Management, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCE |
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