Housing and consumer markets in urban China

In China, the real estate sector has been one of the most powerful driving forces in economic development over the past two decades. The housing sector, particularly, has a strong wealth effect on consumption. This has attracted much attention not only in academia but also in society at large. Yet little is known about the relationship between housing and consumption in urban China. An investigation into the causal relationship between the money flow of the housing market and that of the consumer market for local citizens in urban China applies a recently developed method: Renormalized partial directed coherence (renormalized PDC). This is an advanced tool to exclude the indirect relationships between the housing and consumer markets. Since the original renormalized PDC cannot show the result numerically, we quantify the relationships by developing a set of criteria for further discussion within the renormalized PDC framework. The empirical work reveals two major findings: (1) the retail price level is quite useful in predicting the housing turnover-income ratio; (2) the rental price is one of the most important factors affecting the fluctuation of retail prices for the case of urban areas in China. A housing turnover-income ratio (HTIR) is developed to evaluate the money flow into the housing market, which provides a new way to carry out data analysis when the usual indicators might be inappropriate. The research provides a reference point for economic policymaking for the relationship between the money flow into the housing market and the money flow into the consumer market.