Zheng, X; Chau, K W and Hui, E C M (2012) The impact of property price on construction output. Construction Management and Economics, 30(12), pp. 1025-1037. ISSN 1466433X
Abstract
The interaction between the construction market and the overall economy has attracted much attention, but few studies have investigated the influence of the property market on the construction market in terms of property price. The disaggregated data of Hong Kong's housing and retail construction sectors are collected to investigate the impact of property price on construction output. The newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and the error correction (EC)-based Granger causality test are employed. The bounds testing results suggest that there exist stable long-run relationships between construction output and property price for both housing and retail construction sectors. Specifically, a 1.00% increase in the housing price and retail price lead to a 0.55% and 0.42% increase in construction outputs for the two sectors respectively. In addition, the Granger causality tests confirm a distinct long-run causal flow from property price to construction output. Furthermore, the proposed ARDL approach provides an effective method for forecasting construction output.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | autoregressive distributed lag model; cointegration; construction output; forecast; property price |
| Index terms: | cointegration, construction market, property market, retail construction, testing, forecasting, Granger causality test, housing, Hong Kong, interaction, construction output |
| Subjects: | factor and component analysis, market analysis, operations management, economic analysis, prediction and forecasting, construction type, real estate economics, Geography, building construction, professional practice, behavioral psychology |
| Topics: | Urban Studies, Project Management, Research Practice, Construction Technology, Design Practice, Engineering Principles, Geographical Context |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here