Gunner, J and Skitmore, M (1999) Pre-bid building price forecasting accuracy: Price intensity theory. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 6(3), pp. 267-275. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
A theory of pre-bid building price forecasting accuracy is proposed, based on the heuristic bias framework and with reference to the common practice of basing building price forecasts on the price per square metre of floor area, termed here as Price Intensity (PI). The main prediction of the theory, that high PI contracts will be underestimated and low PI contracts will be overestimated, is tested by a re-analysis of a set of Singapore data and in comparison with previous work.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | accuracy; judgement bias; price forecast; price intensity theory |
| Index terms: | heuristic, Singapore, forecasting, accuracy, bias |
| Subjects: | prediction and forecasting, Geography, risk assessment, professional development, probability and distributions |
| Topics: | Risk Management, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Information Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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