Kaka, A P; Lewis, J and Petros, H (2003) The effects of the variability of project planning on cost commitment curves: A case study. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 10(1), pp. 15-26. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Standard value/cost flow models (often referred to as S-curves) are widely used in cash flow forecasting, particularly at the tender stage. A substantial amount of research has concentrated on improving the accuracy of these curves. Categorizing construction projects into groups and subgroups has helped, but the fact remains that different construction projects possess different profiles of cost flow. This paper is an attempt at assessing the extent of influence of planning and programming the work on the cost flow curves. One real project was used as a case study and four planners were independently asked to produce programmes for executing the project. These programmes were analysed and converted to cost flow curves using one database of productivity and unit cost rates. Results confirmed that the variations in programmes produced less variations in cost flow curves than the errors to be expected from the use of average curves derived from project groups (mean SDY 2.88 compared to previous studies of 5.5, 8.5 and 10.67). The results suggest, taking due account of the limitations of the scope of the study, that further effort at the categorisation of projects into subgroups will result in a reasonable improvement in accuracy.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction management; cost control; estimating; planning; regression analysis; scheduling |
| Index terms: | tender stage, s-curve, planner, cash flow forecasting, regression analysis, variability, case study, subgroup, productivity, database, construction project, cost control, variation, programming, project planning, estimating, unit cost, scheduling, commitment, programme, accuracy |
| Subjects: | statistical analysis, research management, data management, project controls, professional development, contractual condition, production management, economics, tendering, management, financial and cost management, operations research, psychology, control systems, programming, profession, data collection methods |
| Topics: | Procurement, Roles and Professions, Project Management, Research Practice, Information Management, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Organizational Design, Time Control, Contract Administration, Digital Applications |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here