Wong, J M W; Chan, A P C and Chiang, Y H (2011) Construction manpower demand forecasting: A comparative study of univariate time series, multiple regression and econometric modelling techniques. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 18(1), pp. 7-29. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of the vector error-correction (VEC) econometric modelling technique in predicting short- to medium-term construction manpower demand. Design/methodology/approach – The VEC modelling technique is evaluated with two conventional forecasting methods: the Box-Jenkins approach and the multiple regression analysis, based on the forecasting accuracy on construction manpower demand. Findings – While the forecasting reliability of the VEC modelling technique is slightly inferior to the multiple log-linear regression analysis in terms of forecasting accuracy, the error correction econometric modelling technique outperformed the Box-Jenkins approach. The VEC and the multiple linear regression analysis in forecasting can better capture the causal relationship between the construction manpower demand and the associated factors. Practical implications – Accurate predictions of the level of manpower demand are important for the formulation of successful policy to minimise possible future skill mismatch. Originality/value – The accuracy of econometric modelling technique has not been evaluated empirically in construction manpower forecasting. This paper unveils the predictability of the prevailing manpower demand forecasting modelling techniques. Additionally, economic indicators that are significantly related to construction manpower demand are identified to facilitate human resource planning, and policy simulation and formulation in construction.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | box jenkins; error handling; forecasting; manpower planning; multiple regression analysis |
| Index terms: | forecasting, multiple-regression, workforce planning, modelling, comparative study, econometric, mismatch, methodology, regression analysis, human resource, economic indicator, accuracy, Box-Jenkins, multiple regression analysis, time series |
| Subjects: | statistical analysis, data science, research design and methodology, data analysis and analytics, management, research methods, prediction and forecasting, analytical methods, operations management, economic analysis, engineering problems, professional development |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Project Management, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Human Resources, Business Strategy |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here