Salah, A and Moselhi, O (2015) Contingency modelling for construction projects using fuzzy-set theory. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 22(2), pp. 214-241. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present a newly developed fuzzy-set based model for estimating, allocating, depleting, and managing contingency fund over the life cycle of construction projects. Design/methodology/approach - Fuzzy set theory is utilized in the design and development of proposed contingency modelling framework to incorporate uncertainties associated with the development phases of construction projects. A set of developed indices, measures, and ratios are introduced to quantify and characterize these uncertainties. The developed framework is designed to incorporate expert opinion and provide user-system interaction. Findings - The results obtained from the application of the developed framework on actual project case not only illustrate its accuracy, but also demonstrate its capabilities for contingency management over life cycle of construction projects. Unlike other methods, the framework provides project managers with structured method for contingency depletion utilizing a set of depletion curves and selection factors. Originality/value - The novelty of the developed framework lies not only in its new developments for contingency estimating but also its modelling for contingency allocation and depletion. It is expected to be of direct value to industry professionals and academics interested in contingency management over the entire life cycle of construction projects. The proposed framework provides management functions and features beyond those generated through Monte Carlo simulation and even those developed using fuzzy set theory.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction; fuzzy sets; contingency planning; management; estimating; uncertainty modelling |
| Index terms: | accuracy, contingency planning, estimating, uncertainty modelling, construction project, methodology, Monte Carlo simulation, life cycle, fuzzy set theory, fuzzy set, project manager, design and development, interaction, modelling, depletion |
| Subjects: | profession, value management, modelling and simulation, environmental resource management, financial and cost management, analytical methods, research methods, financial risk, design process, professional development, production management, behavioral psychology, environmental hazards, decision-making and optimization |
| Topics: | Design Practice, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Research Practice, Cost Management, Sustainability, Roles and Professions |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here