Ahmadu, H A; Ibrahim, A D; Ibrahim, Y M and Adogbo, K J (2020) Incorporating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the modelling of construction duration. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 27(9), pp. 2199-2219. ISSN 0969-9988
Abstract
Purpose: This study aims to develop a model which incorporates the impact of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties into construction duration predictions, in a manner that is consistent with the nature/quality of information available about various factors which bring about uncertainties. Design/methodology/approach: Data relating to 178 completed Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETfund) building construction projects were obtained from construction firms via questionnaire survey. Using 90% of the data, the model was developed in the form of a hybrid-based algorithm implemented through a suitable user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) using MATLAB programming language. Bayesian model averaging, Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy logic were the statistical methods used for the algorithm development, prior to its GUI implementation in MATLAB. Using the remaining 10% data, the model's predictive accuracy was assessed via the independent samples t-test and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Findings: The developed model's predictions were found not statistically different from those of actual duration estimates in the 10% test data, with a MAPE of just 2%. This suggests that the model's ability to incorporate both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties improves accuracy of duration predictions made using it. Research limitations/implications: The model was developed using a particular type of building projects (TETfund building construction projects), and so its use is limited to projects with characteristics similar to those used for its development. Practical implications: The developed model's predictions are expected to serve as a useful basis for consultancy firms and contractor organisations to make more realistic schedules and benchmark measures of construction period, thereby facilitating effective planning and successful execution of construction projects. Originality/value: The study presented a model which permits combined manipulation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, hence ensuring a more realistic incorporation of uncertainty into construction duration predictions.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | aleatory uncertainty; Bayesian model averaging; construction duration; epistemic uncertainty; fuzzy logic; Monte Carlo simulation; prediction |
| Index terms: | tertiary, user interface, building construction, accuracy, survey, construction firm, methodology, construction project, programming, questionnaire, consultancy, trust fund, fuzzy logic, contractor organization, Monte Carlo simulation, statistical method, modelling, estimate, implementation, duration |
| Subjects: | modelling and simulation, data science, contractual arrangements, curriculum development, financial and cost management, analytical methods, economic analysis, data collection methods, organization, programming, project controls, building construction, human-computer interaction, statistical analysis, research methods, production management, professional development |
| Topics: | Education, Time Control, Organizational Design, Digital Applications, Procurement, Construction Technology, Research Practice, Project Management, Engineering Principles, Information Management, Business Strategy, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here