Linking project complexity to project success: A hybrid SEM-FCM method

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop a novel hybrid approach that incorporates the structural equation model (SEM) and fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) to investigate the impacts of the variation in project complexity on project success. Design/methodology/approach: This study adopts SEM to identify and validate a correlation between project complexity variables and PS. Standardized causal coefficients estimated in SEM are used to construct an FCM model to illustrate the effect of complexity on PS with linkage direction and weights. Predictive and diagnostic analyses are performed to dynamically model the variation in project complexity on the evolution of PS. Findings: Results indicate that (1) the hybrid SEM–FCM approach is capable of modeling the dynamic interactions between project complexity and PS; (2) information, goal and environmental complexities are negatively correlated with PS, and technological, task and organizational complexities are positively correlated with PS and (3) the recommendations of complexity management for construction projects are put forward under the guideline of success monitoring. Originality/value: This research contributes to (1) the state of knowledge by proposing a hybrid methodology that can model the dynamic interactions between project complexity and PS and (2) the state of practice by providing a new perspective of PS evaluation to enhance the probability of success in complex construction projects.